Instead of carefully analyzing the effects of masks, the CDC repeatedly tried to justify them by misrepresenting short-term trends and hyping badly flawed research, like studies in Arizona and Kansas purporting to show that infections had been dramatically reduced by the mask mandates imposed in some counties. Mask mandates are associated with reductions in COVID-19 case and hospitalization growth rates (6,7), whereas reopening on-premises dining at restaurants, a known risk factor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (2), is associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, particularly in the absence of mask mandates (8). A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. In the summer of 2020, Politico praised Rhode Islands wear-your-damn mask policy in an article headlined, How the Smallest State Engineered a Covid Comeback. A survey in the autumn found that 96 percent of Rhode Islanders were wearing masks, the highest rate in the U.S., yet that winter the state went on to suffer one of the nations worst Covid surges. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. The opposite was true for states with mandates. Yes For policies on physical distancing, we recorded whether a stay-at-home order was issued and, if so, when. Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. Over the course of the pandemic, the scientific evidence and our understanding of masks have grown. At the beginning of November, most states were scoring in the 40s and 50s. Cases dropped in late July, but since then Texas has eased efforts to contain the virus, and cases are rising again. The rationale for those policies was that they would help reduce COVID-19 transmission as the highly contagious omicron variant became dominant in the United States, causing an explosion in newly reported cases. Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. The. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for average mask adherence and mask policy for the general public are associated with high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (Table 3). All reviews and studies included in this document report on data collected in a time period prior Many have also done the least to contain the virus. Yes "They dont know how well people complied with these mandates or what proportion of the populationwas actually wearing masks.. The wave of new restrictions in the United States follows national and regional lockdowns in Europe, where outbreaks surged past their spring peaks but cases per capita remained lower than many Upper Midwest states. Weak recent containment measures and many cases. Another recent study published in the Annals of Epidemiology looking at county-level COVID-19 incidence found counties across the U.S. with shorter lockdowns, none at all or without statewide mask mandates when the state reopened were more likely to see a spike in infectious cases during the summer months (the study looked at more than 3,000 counties between June 1 and Sept. 30). (Though todays ruling by U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Tampa, declaring the Biden administrations mask mandate for public transportation unlawful, comes as welcome news.) Maskaholics in the press are calling for permanent masking on trains, planes, and buses. Our observation that states with mask adherence by 75% of the population was associated with lower COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month suggests that states should strive to meet this threshold. It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. The mandate will still require masks where . 18, 2020. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. The question is and Im sure thats the conversation now happening in the halls of power what do we do next? broad scope, and wide readership a perfect fit for your research every time. Writing review & editing, Affiliation (Andy Wong) HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong will lift its mask mandate on Wednesday, ending the city's last major restriction imposed during the . Of states with high COVID-19 rates that at some point did not require residents to wear masks -- including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,. New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. No, Is the Subject Area "Pandemics" applicable to this article? One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. PLoS ONE 16(4): John Tierney is a contributing editor of City Journal and coauthor of The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. No, Is the Subject Area "Hispanic people" applicable to this article? The worst outbreaks in the country now are in places where policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford index. A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. Researchers found that out of 15 states that did not require people to wear masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates. Nedghie Adrien, Roles By Jocelyn Solis-Moreira Adherence to public policy is influenced by a complex interplay of factors such as public opinion, cultural practices, individual perceptions and behaviors [11], which are difficult to quantify. The findings were published in the journal PLOS One in April. But as Flam notes, "the benefits of universal masking have been difficult to quantify" in the real world, where cloth models predominate and masks may not be clean, well-fitted, or worn properly. States with a 75% minimum mask adherence reported about 109.26 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents compared to the average of 249.99 per 100,000 residents in states with low mask adherence. But then Fauci, like the CDC and the WHO, bowed to political expediency and media hysteria. The study also did not measure compliance with and enforcement of mask mandates and prohibitions on dining at restaurants. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. The pandemic planners at the United Kingdoms Department of Health had reached a similar conclusion: In line with the scientific evidence, the Government will not stockpile facemasks for general use in the community. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this evidence early in the pandemic, both in his public comments (Theres no reason to be walking around with masks, he told 60 Minutes) and in his private emails (I do not recommend you wear a mask, he told a colleague, explaining that masks were too porous to block the small Covid virus). Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. This association between high mask adherence and reduced COVID-19 rates should influence policy makers and public health officials to focus on ways to improve mask adherence across the population in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. To reduce the rate of COVID-19 cases nationwide, Werler says people need to wear their masks. Covering up may give the maskaholics a false sense of securitybut they could breathe more easily if theyd just face the facts. If youre fully vaccinated, the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities such as gathering with other vaccinated people. Meanwhile, the eight states that reported 75% or more mask adherence between June 2020 and September 2020 did not have high COVID-19 rates. Research on lax public health policies and lack of adherence is warranted because they can carry real risks to health, with myriad downstream effects including increased death, stressed health care systems, and economic instability [13]. The graph for New York, which also had a statewide mask mandate, looks very much like the graph for California, but with an earlier peak. We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). The adoption of universal masking policies is increasingly polarized and politicized, demanding that public health authorities balance the values of health and individual liberty. Research suggests that mandatory mask-wearing policies correlated with a lower number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Meantime, the medias favorite experts kept predicting doom for states that never mandated masks, like Florida, or that ended the mandates early in 2021, like Iowa, whose policy shift was denounced as reckless and delusional in a Washington Post article headlined, Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesnt care if you live or die. Iowas Covid death toll plummeted right after the article appeared. Rhode Island. Nationwide, according to theNew York Times database, the seven-day average of daily new cases rose sharply from mid-December to January 17 and has fallen just as sharply since then, which is consistent with the experience in other countries after omicron emerged. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t001. Across the country, indoor mask requirements in blue states are falling like dominoes as COVID cases drop. The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. Our study was also limited by the lack of information on accessibility of COVID-19 testing; if less accessible testing is associated with less mask adherence, the associations we report here may be under-estimates. Methodology, Conceptualization, In addition, Hawaii and Oregon, which have both implemented school mask. When Can I Dine Indoors Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. Even if masking works, that does not necessarily mean mandates do. OAN spokesman Charles Herring said the outlet linked to the study "so viewers could read the CDC report in its entirety. We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of states with and without mask policy. Models were unadjusted, adjusted for no mask policy (Model 1), and adjusted for no mask policy in previous month, no stay-home order, >15% population non-Hispanic Black, >15% population Hispanic, median age >40 years, population density > 200/square mile (Model 2). Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. The proportions of states with high COVID-19 rates are shown for those in the low and high quartiles of mask adherence in the preceding month (Fig 1). Accessibility | Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. Data curation, The Kentucky senator presses on with his fight against the federal governments Covid response. But a new study examines how the value of these actions also came with costs. We all want to be able to be with friends and family this spring and summer, and we all dont want to have [to] go back to the more stringent mitigation measures, so gathering outside and wearing masks is the best way to allow both to happen.. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. High school students in Seattle staged a protest demanding that a mask mandate be reinstated, and psychologists now deal with the anxieties of children who dont want their classmates to see their faces. The estimated absolute change in cumulative case rate associated with lifting the mask mandate, remains 28.1 (30.6%) 21 days after lifting the mask mandate. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. Its a graph that should be required viewing for everyone still wearing a mask and every public official or journalist who still insists that mask mandates control the spread.. When Can I Go to the Movie Theater Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . The politicization of COVID-19 epidemiology [9,12] has further complicated policy-making, messaging, and uptake. The current surge is worst in places with few containment measures. The study also found a statistically significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections and deaths starting 40 days after indoor or outdoor dining at restaurants was allowed. Eleven states had no stay-at-home order, 15 had no mask policy, and four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. California's state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic is finally over, ending on Tuesday after nearly three years in place. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.s001. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. Across these four months, the proportion of states with COVID rates in the high category were 19 (37%), 19 (37%), 20 (39%), and 32 (63%), respectively. Indeed, associations between mask policy, adherence and other factors may be obscured in states with many high density and low density areas. Masks prevent you from inhaling or exhaling viral droplets that can linger in the air. The index comes from Oxfords Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies or lack thereof governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. We categorized the existence of a mask policy as None if there was no requirement for face coverings in public spaces, Recommended if required in all public spaces without consequences, and Strict if required in all public spaces with consequences in the form of fine(s) or citation(s). One state is the lone holdout. We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. February 28, 2023. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting that mask mandates were linked to statistically significant decreases in COVID-19 case within 20 days of implementation. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. Indeed, issuing such a policy is not the same as successfully implementing it. Charlie B. Fischer, | The surgical masks didnt stop a subsequent surge throughout the country, and infection rates in Bavaria and Berlin were the same as in German states without the N95 requirement. Again and again, journalists and public-health officials would single out a state or a nation that had supposedly tamed Covid by forcing citizens to wear masksand then these masks would promptly fail to prevent an unprecedented wave of infections. That period is used as the benchmark against which researchers compared days 21 through 60 before mask mandates were adoptedand the 100 days after. Despite an early outbreak, South Korea flattened the curve with aggressive testing and contact tracing, as well as widespread mask wearing. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. New Zealand recently lifted all restrictions following 10 days with no new cases. Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. According to Werler, Arizona's data was unexpected. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. States and cities are reinstating restrictions and implementing new ones: In recent days, the governors of Iowa, North Dakota and Utah imposed mask mandates for the first time since the outbreak began. For a while, the residents were spared. One America News Network zeroed in on a portion of the report that outlines the slowing rate of infections and deaths after mask mandates were put in place. We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. Here's what it could mean for all of us. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, Corrections, Expressions of Concern, and Retractions, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-are-the-states-with-mask-mandates, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/CovidEconomics43.pdf, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend, https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7761, https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36/data, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data/, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html#thresholds, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fneed-extra-precautions%2Fpeople-at-increased-risk.html. Investigation, Yes States with mask mandates saw higher mask adherence. "Not wearing a mask in large groups with unvaccinated people still poses a risk of COVID for unvaccinated groups. Of the 15 states with no mask policy from April through September, 14 reported high COVID-19 rates in at least one month from May to October. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); NEXT: The FBI Seized Almost $1 Million From This Familyand Never Charged Them With a Crime. For all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC), these data were abstracted by month for April September 2020 to measure their impact on COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (May October 2020). Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Most states imposed tight restrictions in the spring even if they did not have bad outbreaks then. Randomized clinical trials involving flu viruses had shown, contrary to popular wisdom in Japan and other Asian countries, that there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission, as the WHO summarized the scientific literature. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. "The probability of becoming a rapid riser county was 43% lower among counties that had statewide mask mandates at reopening," the researchers reported. The data we now have conclusively show that widespread use of masks is a very effective way to reduce the spread of COVID-19, CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed wrote in an email to USA TODAY. R-0 may be the most important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic. Our observed associations should influence policy-makers and contribute to public health messaging by government officials and the media that mask wearing is a key component of COVID-19 mitigation. For demographic data, we dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated the highest quartile of the distributions. Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. Brooks JT & Butler JC. Over a third of states are ending COVID-19 mask mandates. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. 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