On the War in Ukraine, Putin & Nato Expansion | Stephen Kotkin GEONOW 58K subscribers Subscribe 17K views 10 months ago #Ukraine #TheChangingOrder Subscribe: https://bit.ly/3slupxs . Who did it? Russia army disintegrates in the field and all sorts of great things happen for the Ukrainians. This is because Kotkin always checks with Stalin to decide who is a bona fide Marxist and who is not; what is socialism and what is not; what are Marxist precepts and what are not. Police the internet, police the public sphere. Mr Birkelund is a class act. Peter Robinson: if the French and the Germans were more self-respecting, frankly, at some basic level, it has to be debilitating that Macron and the president before him, who was such a non-entity I can't even remember his name, and Sarkozy before him. Nobody can have Ukraine. They did their mobilization way back in the fall. An armistice that enables Ukraine to be rebuilt. Stephen Kotkin: Yeah. That's produced a new version of the war that wasn't there at the beginning. Stephen Kotkin: We could do that. Everything should be going to Asia while we deprioritize everything else." Stephen Kotkin: the Russian thing. Here these people sitting at home in their living room, they touch the dial and anybody can just broadcast demagogy or whatever. Stephen Kotkin: All of it. What sets Hoover apart from all other policy organizations is its status as a center of scholarly excellence, its locus as a forum of scholarly discussion of public policy, and its ability to bring the conclusions of this scholarship to a public audience. That's his problem, right? It's in double digits, okay. Stephen Kotkin aspires to give us the definitive picture of Stalin and to bury socialism with his crimes. Yes. And here he is. And after those slaps on the wrist he went and decided he wanted to take the whole thing. Whatever it might be, whatever the simplistic analogy might be, we latch onto it and it becomes the defining category or the defining meme in how we approach things. Because Putin had kept the circle really tight and he didn't tell his own people. Gaining an inch, losing an inch. His regime has to feel threatened. Stuff that we have in stock, right? Let's be honest. But it does not invalidate Sukhanovs observation. We're not producing more of that stuff. Stalin exhibited no unflinching resolve to upturn agrarian relations. Who's up? Am I up? And now being an ally of the United States after that devastating defeat in the war, Japan too began to rethink its China policy and how close it needed to be to China versus how close it needed to be to the US on Asian strategic questions. Cossacks attacked once again. That's the only way to advance American interests. The wholesale collectivization of some 120 million peasants necessitated levels of coercion that were extreme even for Russia, and the resulting mass starvation elicited criticism inside the party . Are you up? "I . Generally, Americans like to see themselves as the world hegemon and thus all significant world events must be the consequence of American action or inaction. And then the Right, they detest the European Union, and yet they want Western civilization to be taught on the college campus. I would never bet against them, I would bet in favor of them. [26] However, the Testament has been accepted as genuine by many historians, including E. H. Carr, Isaac Deutscher, Dmitri Volkogonov, Vadim Rogovin and Oleg Khlevniuk. They're killing you every day. This inevitably clutters the typical view of Soviet collapse. It's your house and they just snatch two of those rooms. [27][dubious discuss][28] Kotkin's claims were also rejected by Richard Pipes soon after they were published, who claimed Kotkin contradicted himself by citing documents in which Stalin referred to the Testament as the "known letter of comrade Lenin." They could get them with an EU accession process. Stephen Kotkin: Yeah, so I was with you until that last. And as long as it doesn't try to become independent in law, as well as in fact it doesn't try to upset the status quo or we don't try to upset the status quo, we're winning that situation. Are we still capable of producing the George Kennans and the Henry Kissingers and the George Schultzes and the Stephen Kotkins? What I want here is a historian speaking. Already, Kotkin is determined to establish Stalins sympathy for the Bolshevik dictatorship of the intellectuals in contrast to the Menshevik democracy of the workers, a standard theme in the field. This brings us to Henry Kissinger. You're not actually destroying their capability to fight and you're not ramping up your capability. We thought it would be quick. January 3rd, 2022, "China Scrambles Fighter Jets Near Taiwan in Wake of US Carrier Exercises". And then we had television. Kotkin's most prominent book project is his three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin, of which the first two volumes have been published as Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 18781928 (2014) and Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 19291941 (2017), while the third volume remains to be published. We all have to look into the mirror and stop blaming the students that they don't know any history and figure out how to teach them history that they'd be interested in learning, and that would be helpful and useful to them. Your willpower holds and the other guy's willpower collapses. Or maybe it's not. Sure, some of the countries are small, but Poland is not a small country. They'll wanna join us because of the great benefits of being economically integrated." We had this incredible military victory on the battlefield and then we couldn't consolidate those gains. Russia's war marks the definitive end of America's unipolar moment and returns the world to a state best explained by realism. In 1900, Stalin chose mass agitation, rejecting quiet pedagogy among autodidact workers by small circles of Social Democratic propagandists. So let's acknowledge that Europe is a success. And now being an ally of the United States after that devastating defeat in the war, Japan too began to rethink its China policy and how close it needed to be to China versus how close it needed to be to the US on Asian strategic questions. Now as ever, great-power politics will drive events, and international rivalries will be . He's not worried about his GDP growth. Again, the little Kotkin writes about Stalin in this period tells us more about what Kotkin thinks of Stalin than about what Stalin thinks. Hospitals, schools being destroyed. Kotkin subscribes fully to that line. Maybe we're adaptable and resilient. Every hegemon thinks it is the last; all ages believe they will endure forever. Stephen Kotkin: Right. If the two mesh then we are at, or pretty close to, the truth. Here it is. Still, he grudgingly recognizes that Lenins dictatorship shared with much of the mass a popular maximalism, an end to the war come what may, a willingness to use force to defend the revolution Lenin drew strength from the popular radicalism. In other words, there was a democratic basis to the October Revolution. Soviet. But Kotkin cannot even conceive of this being done by Marxists, or by appeals to Marxist precepts, or in the name of socialism, as Stalins critics in the Right Opposition did. And for some of the losers, the injury is compounded by what feels like cultural insult, as their . That's Niall Ferguson. Like for example, they would lose their own country because there would be a response potentially, right? Kotkin has participated in numerous events of the National Intelligence Council, among other government bodies, and is a consultant in geopolitical risk to Conexus Financial and Mizuho Americas. Stephen Kotkin: And so that's one piece. And my God, was that the end of the world? Where Taiwan is allowed to be independent, to build its own tremendously powerful economy, to integrate deeply with the West as long as they don't pretend they're actually independent. On the other hand, the deal with China, with Mao, and the abandonment of Taiwan and all of that kind of stuff, how does that look in the fullness of time, the Nixon-Kissinger triangulation of the Sino-Soviet split so that we could peel the Chinese off from the Soviets onto our side. "Things are different now. The European's Olaf Schultz, the Chancellor of Germany, after the Ukrainian invasion, he gives a big speech. Already on our list? And we're not ramping up production on our side. We'll have to reinvigorate our relationships with our friends. History is a sensibility which says, the present is not gonna last. Is that a good solution? More casualties are in the immediate future. The Fourth Congress of the RSDLP met in Stockholm in April 1906. Kotkin makes no claim that Stalin destroyed his earlier understanding of Marxism in the process. Western civilization, one side won't let us have it, and the other side can't abide it. History is made by those who never quit, declares Kotkin emptily. So you're General Milley and you're sitting there and-. More and more people got the right to vote there. You're, as usual, very well prepared here. I don't know, but that's a debate worth having. Stephen Kotkin: and on the Ukrainians. It's in values terms. All of that is within our grasp, and we're the only ones who can ruin it. It's a rebuke in China's face. His publications include Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941, and Stalin, Vol. A few months later, the Tiflis Committee sent Stalin to Batum, where he immersed himself in the workers milieu. He got a job at the Rothschild Oil company. To add more books, click here . Such are the limitations of psycho-history. And so this is why I've said from the beginning that despite the prevention of conquest, right? Let's remember that when the CIA went public saying that Russia was gonna attack Ukraine, it knew things that the number three person in Russia's Ministry of Defense didn't know. That America has to bear all of the burdens or most of them? We can live with this. February 1946, George Kennan, who's then the State Department official posted in Moscow, sends the State Department a 5,000-word telegram, the so-called "Long Telegram", in which, right there, at the beginning of the Cold War, he lays out the inner dynamics of Soviet communism and lays out the fundamental strategy of containment, which remains American policy for the next four and a half decades. Let's be honest. Sure, we get that. He understands Russian history and he's dealing with people. Correct. Negotiations." Unbelievable lesson there for us today. They need some type of guaranteed contracts to invest in massive expansion of their production capacity. Kotkin takes the view that NATO's expansion did not trigger Russian hostility, but rather that Russia is just reverting to historical type: an militaristic, expansionist autocracy trying to. And yes, they could and should do more. You know, "If you do this, if you support Ukraine, fire and brimstone." Stolypin combined the offices of prime minister and minister of interior from 1906 to 1911, when a Socialist Revolutionary bullet put an end to his career. It would take Stalin and his supporters eighteen months to grind down the Right Opposition, finally putting it to flight in the spring of 1929. Yes, get the stuff on the island before, God forbid, a war breaks out. Maybe we have to reconsider some of the trade packs where China doesn't abide by international norms or international rules. We're way behind the eight ball. . And then a couple of things happen. Yet Stalin kept his position. So that's the first and most important point. No, of course it doesn't mean that. According to the University's course listing, the seminar focused on the "birth of a new society in the throes of revolution" and included a "special focus on the Stalin period," a particular interest . Few months later, the present is not a small country abide by international norms international... 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